{"schema_version":"safetrace.open-policy-catalog/1.0","generated_at":"2026-07-24","boundary":"Read-only public-source snapshot. No composite Germany score. Working policy models are not official findings.","systems":[{"system_id":"truth-layer-case-005","title":"Truth Layer: Kindergeld-Zuschreibung","domain":"democracy","status":"source_verified_human_review_pending","question":"Wer beschloss die Erhöhung des Kindergelds auf 259 Euro?","summary":"Der Bundestag beschloss die Erhöhung am 19. Dezember 2024; sie trat am 1. Januar 2026 in Kraft. Die Merz-Regierung begann am 6. Mai 2025.","truth_state":"Four live official originals retained and hashed; named human publication review still pending.","incentives":["Political communication is rewarded for claiming visible benefits at implementation time.","A source-first timeline reduces attribution errors."],"beneficiaries":["Citizens seeking verifiable political attribution","Journalists and reviewers"],"payers":["Research and review time"],"risks":["Implementation may be confused with authorship","A narrow claim may be generalized beyond its scope"],"outcome_contract":{"metric":"Correct attribution before and after reading","baseline_status":"not_yet_measured","review_horizon":"after first 20 consented reading sessions"},"source_ids":["case005-bundestag","case005-government"]},{"system_id":"citizen-capital","title":"Bürgerkapital","domain":"wealth","status":"working_policy_model","question":"Wie kann jeder Bürger produktives Kapital besitzen?","summary":"Automatic low-cost, globally diversified citizen accounts could broaden ownership while preserving individual property rights.","truth_state":"Current reform direction and product rules require case-level source acquisition before publication.","incentives":["Automatic enrolment increases participation","Progressive public contributions target unequal starting conditions","Low fees reward long holding periods"],"beneficiaries":["Children and households without existing financial assets","Workers without employer equity"],"payers":["Public budget for progressive contributions","Account holders through market risk and fees"],"risks":["Political investment mandates","Excessive provider fees","Unequal take-up if enrolment is voluntary"],"outcome_contract":{"metric":"Share of adults with diversified productive capital","baseline_status":"data_gap","review_horizon":"annual"},"source_ids":["bafin-altersvorsorge"]},{"system_id":"energy-abundance","title":"Saubere, günstige Energie","domain":"energy","status":"official_snapshot_working_analysis","question":"Schließt Deutschland die Lücke zu reichlich sauberer und günstiger Energie?","summary":"Renewable capacity is growing, but onshore and offshore wind remain well below 2030 targets and grid, storage and flexibility must scale with generation.","truth_state":"Official 2025 capacity and generation snapshots; price and system-cost outcome layer remains incomplete.","incentives":["Capacity targets reward construction","Dynamic prices reward flexible demand","Local participation can reduce opposition"],"beneficiaries":["Households and firms if system costs fall","Clean-energy supply chains"],"payers":["Ratepayers and taxpayers financing networks and support schemes"],"risks":["Generation grows faster than networks","Subsidies persist without cost reduction","Local bottlenecks create redispatch costs"],"outcome_contract":{"metric":"Delivered clean electricity cost, reliability and target-gap closure","baseline_status":"partial","review_horizon":"quarterly"},"source_ids":["bnetza-renewables-2025","bnetza-power-market-2025"]},{"system_id":"anchor-customer","title":"Staat als Ankerkunde","domain":"state-capacity","status":"working_policy_model","question":"Kann öffentliche Beschaffung Innovation schneller in reale Nutzung bringen?","summary":"Paid discovery contracts, explicit baselines and scale-or-stop gates can turn public demand into measurable innovation rather than grant theatre.","truth_state":"Public procurement infrastructure exists; outcome evidence must be gathered pilot by pilot.","incentives":["Paid discovery rewards solving concrete problems","Outcome gates discourage slideware","Open interfaces reduce vendor lock-in"],"beneficiaries":["Public-service users","Start-ups and SMEs with working products","Procurement teams with measurable baselines"],"payers":["Public budgets and procurement capacity"],"risks":["Incumbent capture","Pilot projects that never scale","Metrics chosen to flatter suppliers"],"outcome_contract":{"metric":"Cost, time, error rate and user outcome versus baseline","baseline_status":"pilot_required","review_horizon":"per procurement"},"source_ids":["koinno-procurement"]},{"system_id":"ai-robotics-dividend","title":"AI- und Robotik-Dividende","domain":"productivity","status":"working_policy_model","question":"Wie werden Produktivitätsgewinne breit geteilt?","summary":"AI and robotics should raise output and reduce harmful work, while ownership, profit-sharing and learning access distribute the gains.","truth_state":"Normative system design; requires sector-specific pilots and measured productivity data.","incentives":["Worker ownership links automation gains to household wealth","Public adoption can create reference customers","Outcome-based support rewards deployed productivity"],"beneficiaries":["Workers with better tools and ownership","Firms that deploy effective automation","Patients and citizens when human time is freed"],"payers":["Investment capital","Transition and training budgets"],"risks":["Concentrated ownership","Automation without worker transition","Surveillance and deskilling"],"outcome_contract":{"metric":"Productivity gain, wage gain, work quality and ownership distribution","baseline_status":"pilot_required","review_horizon":"six and twelve months after deployment"},"source_ids":["bundesbank-forecast-2026"]}],"cases":[{"case_id":"case-005","title":"Wer hat die Kindergelderhöhung auf 259 Euro beschlossen?","status":"source_verified_human_review_pending","truth_layer":"Four live official originals, immutable receipts and vault-backed claims.","incentive_layer":"Political credit is often claimed at implementation time; timeline evidence disciplines attribution.","outcome_layer":"Reader understanding study not yet completed.","public_path":"../../real_cases/case_005/","system_id":"truth-layer-case-005"}],"indicators":[{"indicator_id":"real-gdp-growth-2026","title":"Reales BIP-Wachstum 2026","domain":"prosperity","value":0.5,"unit":"%","period":"2026 forecast","direction":"higher_is_generally_better","signal":"weak_growth","why_it_matters":"Growth creates fiscal room and income, but its distribution and environmental quality matter.","source_id":"bundesbank-forecast-2026","observed_at":"2026-06-12","evidence_status":"official_forecast","target":null},{"indicator_id":"potential-growth-2026","title":"Geschätztes Potenzialwachstum","domain":"productivity","value":0.4,"unit":"%","period":"2026 estimate","direction":"higher_is_generally_better","signal":"structural_constraint","why_it_matters":"Low potential growth limits durable wage, revenue and service improvements.","source_id":"bundesbank-forecast-2026","observed_at":"2026-06-12","evidence_status":"official_estimate","target":null},{"indicator_id":"unemployment-rate-june-2026","title":"Arbeitslosenquote","domain":"work","value":6.2,"unit":"%","period":"June 2026","direction":"lower_is_generally_better","signal":"flat_under_pressure","why_it_matters":"Employment is a central route to income, participation and skills.","source_id":"ba-labour-june-2026","observed_at":"2026-06-30","evidence_status":"official_observation","target":null},{"indicator_id":"poverty-risk-2025","title":"Armutsgefährdungsquote","domain":"fairness","value":16.1,"unit":"%","period":"2025","direction":"lower_is_better","signal":"deteriorating","why_it_matters":"The measure captures the share below 60% of median equivalised income, not material deprivation by itself.","source_id":"destatis-poverty-2025","observed_at":"2026-02-03","evidence_status":"official_observation","target":null},{"indicator_id":"housing-permits-q1-2026","title":"Genehmigte Wohnungen","domain":"housing","value":63500,"unit":"units","period":"Q1 2026","direction":"higher_is_generally_better","signal":"improving_from_low_base","change":14.0,"change_unit":"% year-on-year","why_it_matters":"Permits are an upstream signal; completed affordable housing is the final outcome.","source_id":"destatis-housing-q1-2026","observed_at":"2026-05-18","evidence_status":"official_observation","target":null},{"indicator_id":"renewable-generation-share-2025","title":"Erneuerbaren-Anteil an realisierter Stromerzeugung","domain":"energy","value":58.8,"unit":"%","period":"2025","direction":"higher_with_system_reliability","signal":"high_but_slow_change","why_it_matters":"Generation share shows decarbonisation progress but not total system cost or all energy demand.","source_id":"bnetza-power-market-2025","observed_at":"2026-01-05","evidence_status":"official_observation","target":null},{"indicator_id":"solar-capacity-2030-gap","title":"Solarleistung","domain":"energy","value":117.0,"unit":"GW","period":"end 2025","direction":"toward_target","signal":"target_gap","why_it_matters":"Solar is the largest capacity-growth engine; networks, storage and flexible demand determine system value.","source_id":"bnetza-renewables-2025","observed_at":"2026-01-08","evidence_status":"official_observation","target":{"value":215.0,"unit":"GW","date":"2030","status":"official_target"}},{"indicator_id":"onshore-wind-capacity-2030-gap","title":"Windleistung an Land","domain":"energy","value":68.1,"unit":"GW","period":"end 2025","direction":"toward_target","signal":"large_target_gap","why_it_matters":"Onshore wind complements solar but needs faster commissioning and grid integration.","source_id":"bnetza-renewables-2025","observed_at":"2026-01-08","evidence_status":"official_observation","target":{"value":115.0,"unit":"GW","date":"2030","status":"official_target"}},{"indicator_id":"offshore-wind-capacity-2030-gap","title":"Windleistung auf See","domain":"energy","value":9.5,"unit":"GW","period":"end 2025","direction":"toward_target","signal":"very_large_target_gap","why_it_matters":"Offshore wind offers high utilisation but requires long projects, networks and supply-chain capacity.","source_id":"bnetza-renewables-2025","observed_at":"2026-01-08","evidence_status":"official_observation","target":{"value":30.0,"unit":"GW","date":"2030","status":"official_target"}}],"sources":[{"source_id":"bundesbank-forecast-2026","publisher":"Deutsche Bundesbank","title":"Deutschland-Prognose: Energiepreisschock treibt Teuerung an und bremst die Konjunkturerholung","published_at":"2026-06-12","url":"https://publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikationen-de/berichte-studien/monatsberichte/monatsbericht-juni-2026-998608?article=deutschland-prognose-energiepreisschock-treibt-teuerung-an-und-bremst-die-konjunkturerholung-998836","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"ba-labour-june-2026","publisher":"Bundesagentur für Arbeit","title":"Arbeitsmarkt im Juni 2026","published_at":"2026-06-30","url":"https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/presse/2026-22-arbeitsmarkt-im-juni-2026","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"destatis-poverty-2025","publisher":"Statistisches Bundesamt","title":"16,1 % der Bevölkerung in Deutschland sind armutsgefährdet","published_at":"2026-02-03","url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2026/02/PD26_039_63.html","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"destatis-housing-q1-2026","publisher":"Statistisches Bundesamt","title":"Baugenehmigungen für Wohnungen im März 2026","published_at":"2026-05-18","url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2026/05/PD26_166_3111.html","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"bnetza-renewables-2025","publisher":"Bundesnetzagentur","title":"Ausbau Erneuerbarer Energien 2025","published_at":"2026-01-08","url":"https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2026/20260108_EEG.html","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"bnetza-power-market-2025","publisher":"Bundesnetzagentur","title":"Bundesnetzagentur veröffentlicht Daten zum Strommarkt 2025","published_at":"2026-01-05","url":"https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2026/20260105_Smard.html","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"case005-bundestag","publisher":"Deutscher Bundestag","title":"Bundestag beschließt Kindergelderhöhung","published_at":"2024-12-19","url":"https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw39-de-existenzminimum-1017664","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"case005-government","publisher":"Bundesregierung","title":"Neue Bundesregierung im Amt","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/fragen-und-anworten/kanzlerwahl-regierungsbildung-2345072","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"bafin-altersvorsorge","publisher":"Bundesministerium der Finanzen","title":"Reform der privaten Altersvorsorge","published_at":"2026-01-01","url":"https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Web/DE/Themen/Internationales_Finanzmarkt/Altersvorsorge/altersvorsorge.html","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"},{"source_id":"koinno-procurement","publisher":"Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie","title":"KOINNO – Innovative öffentliche Beschaffung","published_at":"2026-01-01","url":"https://www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE/Publikationen/Wirtschaft/koinno-innovative-oeffentliche-beschaffung.html","source_rank":"primary_official","jurisdiction":"DE"}],"methodology":{"schema_version":"safetrace.methodology/1.0","layers":[{"id":"truth","question":"Was ist tatsächlich belegt?","minimum_fields":["claim","source","source_date","evidence_status","limitations"]},{"id":"incentive","question":"Welches Verhalten erzeugt eine Regel?","minimum_fields":["actor","incentive","likely_response","countervailing_force","uncertainty"]},{"id":"outcome","question":"Hat sie das Leben der Menschen wirklich verbessert?","minimum_fields":["baseline","target","metric","observed_value","time_horizon","distribution","unintended_effects"]}],"principles":["Same facts across perspectives","No automatic publication","No composite score that hides trade-offs","Versioned corrections","Public and restricted data remain separated"]}}